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2003 NBA Draft Thoughts

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LeBron James Quarter Season Update
LeBron James Mid-season Update

How will Lebron James fare in the NBA this year?

LeBron James jerseysThere has never been a rookie in any sport (especially one just out of High School) that has generated the buzz that Lebron James has generated. He will be a great eventually but the hype is too overwhelming right now. Even if he scores 50 a game, wins the MVP, and leads the Cleveland Cavaliers to the championship he can't possible live up to the high expectations that have been placed on him.

Keep in mind that this kid is ONLY 18!!!. He is a very mature 18 but still this is a ton of pressure to put on a teenager. It usually takes 2-4 years before incoming high school kids start to come into their own in the league. If you look at the top players in the league you will see players like Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady, and Kevin Garnett, all of whom skipped college and went straight to the pros. Their rookie seasons were nothing great to speak of either. These great players only averaged 7.6, 7.0, and 10.4 points per game respectively. LeBron James should be able to top that but don't expect him to average 30 points per night right out of the gate.

One reason he will struggle is he has spent the last couple years dominating other teenagers. There is nobody in High School that can compete with him at the moment. In the NBA he will be battling night in and night out with grizzled veterans who know all the little tricks. How will Lebron respond when Karl Malone tags him with a hard elbow? What will he do when Allen Iverson crosses him over and breaks his ankles? Will he know what to do when he gets a facial from Ben Wallace? It will probably take him at least a couple years before he really starts to develop into the player he has the potential to be.

Along with the NBA lifestyle comes a lot of freedom. He will have more money than he can spend ($90 million from Nike), lots of free time, people willing to do anything for him, and access to anything he wants. Will he be able to say no to the drugs and women? Lots of very promising NBA careers have been demolished by these things. Take a look at Shawn Kemp. When he was with the Sonics early in his career he was one of the most explosive, exciting players in the game. Once the trappings of the NBA (along with the buffet line) caught up with him he deteriorated into the lump of crap you see sitting on the Orlando Magic bench. Lebron James will need to be careful who he hangs with and who he lets influence his decisions. He will be close to home and close to his mother so hopefully she can keep him under control.

Another issue that will hamper the development of Lebron James is the fact that he will be going to a very young Cleveland Cavaliers team with no veteran leadership. Most of the players on the team will only be a few years older than him and still behave like children. If he had a solid veteran who is grounded to help teach him ins and outs of the league he would benefit greatly. The one good thing he has going for him is having Paul Silas as a coach. He can help Lebron adjust to the league and in some ways be a father type figure to him.

Overall I expect Lebron James to have a very good rookie year and a great NBA career. In 3 years or so I think we will be talking about Lebron in the same breath as Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady, and Kevin Garnett as the best all around players in the league. He won't win Rookie of the Year this year (Darko will get that) but he should be able to average around 17 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists.

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